UERJ 2019/1

The effect of climate change on epidemic risk

The potential impacts of climate change have returned to headlines in recent weeks as scientists,

activists and policy makers try to understand the possible implications of a warming planet. While

rising temperatures and sea levels are important to be considered, changing climate patterns can

have vast implications for epidemic risk as well.

[5] Changes in global climate patterns have been widely discussed; however, rising temperatures

also have implications for risk reduction and management, including impacts on infectious disease

epidemics. With 2016 the hottest year ever recorded and 2017 following suit, we anticipate a

continued growth in the distribution of disease agents, like mosquitoes and ticks. These can

spread illnesses such as zika, yellow fever and dengue to areas where they previously could not be

[10] effectively transmitted.

As predicted by climate scientists, increases in extreme weather events may also lead to increases

in infectious disease outbreaks. Epidemics have previously been seen as a consequence of natural

disasters, which can lead to displaced and crowded populations, the ideal situation for infection

transmission. Severe rainfall or flooding is particularly effective at creating environments suitable

[15] for the transmission and propagation of infectious diseases, such as measles or cholera.

Even without rising to the level of a natural catastrophe, significant variation in weather patterns

can result in changes in human and animal interactions, increasing the potential for pathogens to

move from animals into human populations. For example, unusually heavy rains may predispose

regions to ebola outbreaks by creating more favorable environments for bats hosting the virus.

[20] Similarly, food scarcity brought about by drought, political instability or animal disease may lead to

more animal hunting, therefore raising the risk for ebola virus epidemic.

It is important to take note of the impact of climate change on epidemic risk, but it is equally

important to prepare for its impact on global health. The global health community has largely come

to realize that public health preparedness is crucial to responding efficiently to infectious disease

[25] outbreaks. For this reason, our work is, then, centered around helping governments manage and

quantify infectious disease risk. Besides, regardless of weather patterns, insights into epidemics

and into mechanisms for ensuring adequate support are critical for managing this risk.

Since the public health community agrees that the question is not if another outbreak will happen,

but when, the steps we take in the coming years to prepare for and reduce the increasing frequency

of outbreaks will determine the broader implications these diseases have on our world.

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